Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 52.0% vs Duchene 55.6% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 69.7%
Defensive zone
Eller 83.3%
Neutral zone
Duchene 52.6%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 59.4%
59.4%
40.6%
Eller
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Eller
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
0
Eller
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Eller
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (742)
56.5% (566)
-3.7%
Power Play
67.6% (34)
61.3% (62)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (156)
22.2% (9)
+24.0%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +24.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Eller is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Eller shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Eller
Duchene
Home
54.5% (448)
56.6% (318)
Away
50.2% (484)
56.4% (319)
By Period
Eller
Duchene
P1
52.8%
57.2%
P2
50.9%
55.1%
P3
53.4%
55.6%
OT
50.0%
81.3%
Final 5 min
55.6%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.3%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2024 | 2 | 07:09 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 04:39 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 04:28 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |