Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 49.0% vs Duchene 54.9% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 85.9%
Defensive zone
Eller 53.3%
Neutral zone
Duchene 65.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 69.4%
30.6%
69.4%
Eller
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Eller
Duchene
Last 6: Eller 4-2 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
2
1
Eller
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Eller
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
1
0
Eller
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (821)
55.4% (1,013)
-5.5%
Power Play
52.7% (74)
56.3% (192)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (214)
41.2% (17)
+2.7%
On even strength, Duchene has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Eller is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (720).
Eller shoots left. Duchene is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (823).
Home / Away
Eller
Duchene
Home
49.4% (559)
56.2% (642)
Away
48.5% (550)
54.3% (580)
By Period
Eller
Duchene
P1
50.1%
56.2%
P2
46.7%
56.5%
P3
49.9%
52.9%
OT
71.4%
64.3%
Final 5 min
50.4%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
49.0%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2018 | 3 | 07:36 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 3 | 07:18 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 01:27 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 12:33 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 10:20 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 01:32 | Neutral | Lars Eller |