Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 51.9% vs Backlund 48.5% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 50.9%
Defensive zone
Backlund 75.4%
Neutral zone
Backlund 55.9%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 61.3%
38.7%
61.3%
Eller
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Eller
Backlund
Last 8: Eller 3-5 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
2
Eller
Backlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
2
Eller
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Eller
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (650)
50.4% (1,032)
+2.4%
Power Play
69.2% (13)
52.3% (107)
+16.9%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (88)
40.6% (313)
+4.9%
On power play, Eller has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Eller is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Eller shoots left. Backlund is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,014).
Home / Away
Eller
Backlund
Home
52.6% (340)
48.7% (749)
Away
51.8% (411)
48.1% (703)
By Period
Eller
Backlund
P1
52.4%
50.4%
P2
54.1%
50.1%
P3
50.0%
45.8%
OT
50.0%
30.8%
Final 5 min
50.3%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.2%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 17:21 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 03:38 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 01:40 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 19:06 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 14:06 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 13:40 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 09:44 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 06:41 | Neutral | Lars Eller |