Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (61% H2H, 23 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 50.5% vs Backlund 49.0% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 27-21 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 54.4%
Defensive zone
Backlund 52.9%
Neutral zone
Backlund 52.8%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Eller
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
27
(48 meetings)
21
27
Eller
Backlund
Last 10: Eller 5-5 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
9
14
Eller
Backlund
23 total
Defensive Zone
Even
8
8
Eller
Backlund
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
4
5
Eller
Backlund
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (10,296)
49.7% (13,410)
+1.4%
Power Play
52.8% (621)
51.6% (1,336)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (1,751)
44.0% (2,446)
+2.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,123).
Eller shoots left. Backlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (10,953).
Home / Away
Eller
Backlund
Home
51.4% (6,118)
49.7% (8,565)
Away
49.7% (6,578)
48.3% (8,632)
By Period
Eller
Backlund
P1
51.2%
48.5%
P2
50.1%
50.3%
P3
50.2%
48.4%
OT
56.7%
44.1%
Final 5 min
49.6%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 05:20 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 14:38 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 17:21 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 03:38 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 01:40 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 19:06 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 14:06 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 13:40 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 09:44 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 06:41 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 04:32 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 3 | 17:56 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 3 | 13:39 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 07:21 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 10:23 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 03:47 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 04:38 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 04:25 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 23, 2021 | OT | 00:53 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 3 | 04:32 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |