Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Eller wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 53.3% vs Backlund 50.8% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 69.4%
Defensive zone
Eller 52.3%
Neutral zone
Backlund 58.6%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 58.6%
41.4%
58.6%
Eller
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Eller
Backlund
Last 5: Eller 1-4 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
2
Eller
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Eller
Backlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Eller
Backlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (865)
51.9% (1,083)
+1.9%
Power Play
57.1% (21)
51.7% (120)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (137)
44.3% (183)
+8.3%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Eller is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (682).
Eller shoots left. Backlund is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (824).
Home / Away
Eller
Backlund
Home
56.4% (486)
51.9% (673)
Away
51.2% (537)
49.9% (713)
By Period
Eller
Backlund
P1
55.1%
51.4%
P2
55.3%
50.5%
P3
51.7%
51.4%
OT
27.3%
35.0%
Final 5 min
51.0%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
53.7%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2022 | 3 | 17:56 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 3 | 13:39 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 07:21 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 10:23 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 03:47 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |