Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.9% vs 56.3%). Eller wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.7% vs Frost 55.7% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 78.1%
Defensive zone
Eller 76.8%
Neutral zone
Frost 55.1%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Eller
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Eller
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
0
Eller
Frost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
0
Eller
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (434)
54.9% (701)
+1.6%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
60.8% (166)
+17.0%
Penalty Kill
56.5% (46)
100.0% (5)
-43.5%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +43.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Eller is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Eller shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Home / Away
Eller
Frost
Home
53.1% (211)
56.0% (443)
Away
59.7% (278)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Eller
Frost
P1
55.4%
58.9%
P2
58.1%
55.3%
P3
57.1%
54.0%
Final 5 min
60.5%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
56.9%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 15:10 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 02:52 | Defensive | Lars Eller |