Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.5% vs 50.3%). Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 50.5% vs Frost 50.3% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Eller leads 22-15 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 72.3%
Defensive zone
Eller 81.8%
Neutral zone
Eller 54.9%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 60.6%
60.6%
39.4%
Eller
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
15
(37 meetings)
22
15
Eller
Frost
Last 10: Eller 7-3 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
3
4
Eller
Frost
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
10
5
Eller
Frost
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
9
6
Eller
Frost
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (10,296)
49.4% (3,598)
+1.7%
Power Play
52.8% (621)
55.5% (625)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (1,751)
52.8% (36)
-6.1%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,123).
Eller shoots left. Frost is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Home / Away
Eller
Frost
Home
51.4% (6,118)
51.0% (2,047)
Away
49.7% (6,578)
49.7% (2,212)
By Period
Eller
Frost
P1
51.2%
50.8%
P2
50.1%
51.1%
P3
50.2%
48.5%
OT
56.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
49.6%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 15:10 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 02:52 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 16:12 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 01:33 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 09:10 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 3 | 06:41 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 3 | 01:46 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 01:07 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 00:55 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 3 | 18:35 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 3 | 04:29 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 3 | 02:04 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 2 | 13:53 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 1 | 06:28 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 1 | 06:16 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 08:21 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 05:11 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 01:30 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 14:48 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 15:33 | Defensive | Lars Eller |