Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Eller wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.7% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 85.7%
Defensive zone
Eller 50.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 65.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 85.7%
14.3%
85.7%
Eller
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Eller
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Eller
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (434)
50.0% (992)
+6.5%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
64.9% (148)
+12.9%
Penalty Kill
56.5% (46)
34.4% (32)
+22.1%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +22.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Eller is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (187).
Eller shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Eller
MacKinnon
Home
53.1% (211)
53.3% (591)
Away
59.7% (278)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Eller
MacKinnon
P1
55.4%
49.9%
P2
58.1%
53.2%
P3
57.1%
50.8%
Final 5 min
60.5%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
56.9%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 05:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 05:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |