Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 25 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 50.5% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 37-34 in 71 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 73.1%
Defensive zone
Eller 60.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 54.7%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
Eller
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
34
-
37
(71 meetings)
34
37
Eller
MacKinnon
Last 10: Eller 4-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
5
20
Eller
MacKinnon
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
19
6
Eller
MacKinnon
25 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
10
11
Eller
MacKinnon
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (10,296)
46.1% (11,218)
+5.0%
Power Play
52.8% (621)
53.3% (1,412)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (1,751)
42.8% (502)
+3.9%
On even strength, Eller has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Eller is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,573).
Eller shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
Home / Away
Eller
MacKinnon
Home
51.4% (6,118)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
49.7% (6,578)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Eller
MacKinnon
P1
51.2%
47.4%
P2
50.1%
46.6%
P3
50.2%
46.1%
OT
56.7%
48.4%
Final 5 min
49.6%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 05:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 05:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 10:43 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 10:27 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 06:20 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 19:02 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 05:50 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 2 | 14:24 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 11:05 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 19:58 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 16:10 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 16:05 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 13:47 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 05:32 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 17:03 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 14:00 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 03:55 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 01:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 15:24 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 12:11 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |