Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Eller wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 49.5% vs MacKinnon 45.9% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 68.3%
Defensive zone
Eller 55.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 52.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Eller
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Eller
MacKinnon
Last 5: Eller 2-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Eller
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
0
Eller
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Eller
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (786)
45.8% (755)
+5.3%
Power Play
45.0% (80)
48.3% (60)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (165)
27.6% (29)
+16.0%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Eller is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (354).
Eller shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Eller
MacKinnon
Home
51.2% (510)
49.5% (396)
Away
47.8% (521)
41.7% (448)
By Period
Eller
MacKinnon
P1
50.7%
50.2%
P2
49.0%
43.8%
P3
48.3%
41.4%
OT
56.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
45.8%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
49.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2022 | 3 | 06:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 2 | 13:27 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 2 | 09:28 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 1 | 09:17 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 1 | 05:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |