Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 53.3% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (+9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 57.3%
Defensive zone
Eller 88.7%
Neutral zone
Eller 86.2%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 76.1%
76.1%
23.9%
Eller
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Eller
MacKinnon
Last 5: Eller 4-1 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Eller
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
3
0
Eller
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (865)
44.7% (1,053)
+9.1%
Power Play
57.1% (21)
36.8% (95)
+20.3%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (137)
65.0% (20)
-12.4%
On power play, Eller has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Eller is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Eller shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
Eller
MacKinnon
Home
56.4% (486)
49.4% (553)
Away
51.2% (537)
40.0% (615)
By Period
Eller
MacKinnon
P1
55.1%
45.3%
P2
55.3%
42.7%
P3
51.7%
45.1%
OT
27.3%
46.2%
Final 5 min
51.0%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
53.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 03:00 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 02:54 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 02:37 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 17:56 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 06:38 | Defensive | Lars Eller |