Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Eller wins 61.3% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 51.9% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 59.5%
Defensive zone
Eller 75.8%
Neutral zone
Eller 68.9%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Eller
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Eller
MacKinnon
Last 6: Eller 4-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Eller
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
2
0
Eller
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (650)
49.2% (1,266)
+3.6%
Power Play
69.2% (13)
54.9% (193)
+14.3%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (88)
49.1% (55)
-3.6%
On power play, Eller has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Eller is 61.3% vs right-shot opponents (225).
Eller shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Eller
MacKinnon
Home
52.6% (340)
50.9% (740)
Away
51.8% (411)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Eller
MacKinnon
P1
52.4%
50.9%
P2
54.1%
51.8%
P3
50.0%
47.1%
OT
50.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
50.3%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 10:43 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 10:27 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 06:20 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 19:02 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 05:50 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 2 | 14:24 | Offensive | Lars Eller |