Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Eller wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 50.5% vs MacKinnon 48.6% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 67.9%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 53.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 60.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Eller
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Eller
MacKinnon
Last 7: Eller 2-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Eller
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
3
Eller
MacKinnon
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Eller
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (306)
48.2% (849)
+4.7%
Power Play
40.5% (37)
51.0% (151)
-10.5%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (66)
44.7% (47)
+0.8%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Eller is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (171).
Eller shoots left. MacKinnon is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (705).
Home / Away
Eller
MacKinnon
Home
49.7% (181)
51.2% (521)
Away
51.3% (228)
45.6% (526)
By Period
Eller
MacKinnon
P1
54.2%
49.9%
P2
46.5%
48.0%
P3
49.6%
47.9%
OT
100.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
53.3%
53.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.6%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2016 | 3 | 14:49 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 17, 2016 | 3 | 14:31 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 17, 2016 | 3 | 04:11 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 17, 2016 | 2 | 16:28 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 17, 2016 | 2 | 11:22 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 17, 2016 | 1 | 00:52 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 14, 2015 | 3 | 10:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |