Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 47.4% vs MacKinnon 50.5% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 68.3%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 65.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 56.0%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 61.8%
38.2%
61.8%
Eller
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Eller
MacKinnon
Last 7: Eller 5-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Eller
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
3
0
Eller
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
2
1
Eller
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (701)
49.3% (1,167)
-0.4%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
61.0% (187)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
39.1% (174)
47.9% (167)
-8.8%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Eller is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (339).
Eller shoots left. MacKinnon is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,029).
Home / Away
Eller
MacKinnon
Home
47.5% (421)
57.7% (728)
Away
46.8% (462)
44.0% (793)
By Period
Eller
MacKinnon
P1
47.8%
50.1%
P2
47.3%
52.5%
P3
46.1%
49.3%
OT
66.7%
43.8%
Final 5 min
45.0%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
47.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2017 | 2 | 13:55 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 29, 2017 | 2 | 13:50 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 29, 2017 | 2 | 08:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2017 | 1 | 09:56 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2017 | 1 | 06:28 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 2 | 19:50 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 1 | 08:43 | Defensive | Lars Eller |