Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Eller wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 53.3% vs Sturm 55.2% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Eller 59.7%
Defensive zone
Eller 60.1%
Neutral zone
Eller 59.8%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 59.8%
59.8%
40.2%
Eller
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
10
(16 meetings)
6
10
Eller
Sturm
Last 10: Eller 4-6 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
4
Eller
Sturm
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
3
Eller
Sturm
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
4
3
Eller
Sturm
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (865)
56.1% (716)
-2.3%
Power Play
57.1% (21)
67.7% (31)
-10.6%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (137)
51.1% (133)
+1.5%
On power play, Sturm has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Eller is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (682).
Eller shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Eller
Sturm
Home
56.4% (486)
55.6% (412)
Away
51.2% (537)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Eller
Sturm
P1
55.1%
59.6%
P2
55.3%
52.0%
P3
51.7%
55.5%
OT
27.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
51.0%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
53.7%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 16:44 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 13:42 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 13:35 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 04:52 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 08:41 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 01:45 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 16:45 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 01:38 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 3 | 15:18 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 05:56 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 05:47 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 01:36 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 01:26 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 04:29 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 02:45 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 2 | 01:34 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |