Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 51.9% vs Sturm 57.1% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 61.0%
Defensive zone
Eller 51.2%
Neutral zone
Eller 54.2%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Eller
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Eller
Sturm
Last 5: Eller 2-3 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Eller
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
0
Eller
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Eller
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (650)
62.1% (356)
-9.3%
Power Play
69.2% (13)
75.0% (4)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (88)
38.7% (62)
+6.8%
On even strength, Sturm has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Eller is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Eller shoots left. Sturm is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (279).
Home / Away
Eller
Sturm
Home
52.6% (340)
61.8% (191)
Away
51.8% (411)
56.3% (231)
By Period
Eller
Sturm
P1
52.4%
58.0%
P2
54.1%
57.9%
P3
50.0%
60.6%
Final 5 min
50.3%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.2%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 11:09 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 00:59 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 01:59 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 12:36 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 01:51 | Neutral | Lars Eller |