Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 50.5% vs Sturm 56.1% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 29-13 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Eller 77.3%
Defensive zone
Eller 86.7%
Neutral zone
Eller 78.8%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 79.6%
79.6%
20.4%
Eller
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
29
(42 meetings)
13
29
Eller
Sturm
Last 10: Eller 2-8 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
11
Eller
Sturm
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
5
Eller
Sturm
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
8
13
Eller
Sturm
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (10,296)
57.1% (2,719)
-6.0%
Power Play
52.8% (621)
61.3% (62)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (1,751)
51.0% (498)
-4.3%
On power play, Sturm has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,123).
Eller shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Eller
Sturm
Home
51.4% (6,118)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
49.7% (6,578)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Eller
Sturm
P1
51.2%
56.5%
P2
50.1%
54.9%
P3
50.2%
57.4%
OT
56.7%
60.6%
Final 5 min
49.6%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 11:09 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 00:59 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 01:59 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 12:36 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 01:51 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 08:55 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 01:36 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 01:13 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 06:48 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 18:18 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 11:34 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 04:43 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 01:30 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 16:44 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 13:42 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 13:35 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 04:52 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 08:41 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 01:45 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |