Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 52.0% vs Zacha 54.4% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 80.1%
Defensive zone
Eller 83.1%
Neutral zone
Zacha 53.9%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
Eller
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Eller
Zacha
Last 5: Eller 3-2 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Eller
Zacha
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
2
1
Eller
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (742)
53.9% (787)
-1.1%
Power Play
67.6% (34)
63.2% (193)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (156)
44.3% (88)
+1.9%
On power play, Eller has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Eller is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Eller shoots left. Zacha is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Eller
Zacha
Home
54.5% (448)
56.7% (538)
Away
50.2% (484)
52.8% (530)
By Period
Eller
Zacha
P1
52.8%
52.6%
P2
50.9%
54.8%
P3
53.4%
56.8%
OT
50.0%
59.1%
Final 5 min
55.6%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
54.0%▼
58.0%
52.3%
Zacha
48.0%▼
51.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 07:08 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 15:12 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 17:09 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 08:51 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 09:21 | Defensive | Lars Eller |