Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Eller wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.7% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 67.7%
Defensive zone
Eller 64.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 52.2%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
Eller
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Eller
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Eller
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (434)
55.4% (826)
+1.1%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
57.9% (221)
+19.9%
Penalty Kill
56.5% (46)
50.4% (129)
+6.1%
On power play, Eller has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Eller is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Eller shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Eller
O'Reilly
Home
53.1% (211)
55.8% (579)
Away
59.7% (278)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Eller
O'Reilly
P1
55.4%
57.7%
P2
58.1%
54.8%
P3
57.1%
54.3%
Final 5 min
60.5%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
56.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 19:50 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 17:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |