Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 26 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 50.5% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 46-29 in 75 meetings
Offensive zone
Eller 87.3%
Defensive zone
Eller 83.7%
Neutral zone
Eller 84.9%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 85.2%
85.2%
14.8%
Eller
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
29
-
46
(75 meetings)
29
46
Eller
O'Reilly
Last 10: Eller 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
8
18
Eller
O'Reilly
26 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
17
18
Eller
O'Reilly
35 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
10
Eller
O'Reilly
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (10,296)
56.2% (15,260)
-5.1%
Power Play
52.8% (621)
58.8% (3,445)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (1,751)
51.4% (2,811)
-4.7%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,123).
Eller shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Eller
O'Reilly
Home
51.4% (6,118)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
49.7% (6,578)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Eller
O'Reilly
P1
51.2%
55.6%
P2
50.1%
57.0%
P3
50.2%
55.1%
OT
56.7%
62.2%
Final 5 min
49.6%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 19:50 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 17:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 18:12 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 17:30 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 14:42 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 07:40 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 06:46 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 16:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 07:58 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 1 | 19:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 04:44 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 15:44 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 12:50 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 09:30 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 04:56 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 10:52 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |