Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 51.9% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 71.4%
Defensive zone
Eller 70.8%
Neutral zone
Eller 54.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
Eller
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Eller
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Eller
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
0
Eller
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (650)
56.2% (983)
-3.4%
Power Play
69.2% (13)
55.5% (254)
+13.7%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (88)
52.0% (102)
-6.5%
On power play, Eller has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Eller is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Eller shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Eller
O'Reilly
Home
52.6% (340)
56.2% (697)
Away
51.8% (411)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Eller
O'Reilly
P1
52.4%
54.5%
P2
54.1%
55.5%
P3
50.0%
57.1%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 18:12 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |