Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 52.0% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 74.1%
Defensive zone
Eller 86.1%
Neutral zone
Eller 53.7%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 58.8%
58.8%
41.2%
Eller
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Eller
O'Reilly
Last 9: Eller 4-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Eller
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Eller
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Eller
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (742)
55.0% (1,084)
-2.2%
Power Play
67.6% (34)
56.8% (303)
+10.8%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (156)
40.3% (149)
+5.9%
On power play, Eller has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Eller is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Eller shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Eller
O'Reilly
Home
54.5% (448)
54.8% (759)
Away
50.2% (484)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Eller
O'Reilly
P1
52.8%
55.3%
P2
50.9%
51.9%
P3
53.4%
54.2%
OT
50.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
55.6%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 17:30 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 14:42 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 07:40 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 06:46 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 16:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 07:58 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 1 | 19:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 04:44 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |