Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Lorentz on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Eller wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 53.3% vs Lorentz 48.2% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 67.6%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 73.9%
Neutral zone
Lorentz 67.3%
Result
Steven Lorentz favored at 69.7%
30.3%
69.7%
Eller
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Eller
Lorentz
Last 9: Eller 2-7 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
1
4
Eller
Lorentz
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
1
2
Eller
Lorentz
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lorentz
0
1
Eller
Lorentz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (865)
48.3% (497)
+5.5%
Power Play
57.1% (21)
63.6% (11)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (137)
38.5% (39)
+14.1%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Eller is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (682).
Eller shoots left. Lorentz is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Home / Away
Eller
Lorentz
Home
56.4% (486)
50.4% (238)
Away
51.2% (537)
46.0% (309)
By Period
Eller
Lorentz
P1
55.1%
49.1%
P2
55.3%
48.0%
P3
51.7%
47.2%
OT
27.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.0%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
53.7%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 19:32 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 19:06 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 07:44 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 19:30 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 17:02 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 17:54 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 18:08 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 09:04 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 2 | 12:13 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |