Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Eller wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.7% vs Stamkos 54.6% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 72.3%
Defensive zone
Eller 81.1%
Neutral zone
Eller 53.7%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 81.1%
81.1%
18.9%
Eller
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Eller
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
0
Eller
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (434)
56.1% (342)
+0.4%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
53.3% (92)
+24.5%
Penalty Kill
56.5% (46)
62.5% (8)
-6.0%
On power play, Eller has a +24.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Eller is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (187).
Eller shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Eller
Stamkos
Home
53.1% (211)
53.4% (208)
Away
59.7% (278)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Eller
Stamkos
P1
55.4%
55.6%
P2
58.1%
52.8%
P3
57.1%
59.1%
Final 5 min
60.5%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
56.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:19 | Defensive | Lars Eller |