Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.5% vs 51.0%). Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (66% H2H, 41 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 50.5% vs Stamkos 51.0% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 66-51 in 117 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 59.9%
Defensive zone
Eller 74.4%
Neutral zone
Eller 59.2%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 59.1%
59.1%
40.9%
Eller
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
51
-
66
(117 meetings)
51
66
Eller
Stamkos
Last 10: Eller 5-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
11
23
Eller
Stamkos
34 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
26
16
Eller
Stamkos
42 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
14
27
Eller
Stamkos
41 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (10,296)
50.4% (9,799)
+0.7%
Power Play
52.8% (621)
55.1% (1,725)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (1,751)
49.7% (825)
-3.0%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Eller is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,573).
Eller shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,778).
Home / Away
Eller
Stamkos
Home
51.4% (6,118)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
49.7% (6,578)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Eller
Stamkos
P1
51.2%
49.1%
P2
50.1%
52.7%
P3
50.2%
50.9%
OT
56.7%
54.3%
Final 5 min
49.6%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:19 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 18:11 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 15:58 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 07:52 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 14:32 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 18:36 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 3 | 10:31 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 15:55 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 15:28 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 18:23 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 13, 2022 | 1 | 15:12 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 15:17 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 08:41 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 2 | 01:56 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 6, 2022 | 3 | 13:31 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 6, 2022 | 3 | 13:13 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 1, 2021 | 3 | 13:06 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 1, 2021 | 3 | 06:52 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 1, 2021 | 3 | 01:03 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 1, 2021 | 2 | 07:03 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |