Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 52.0% vs Stamkos 55.2% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 73.9%
Defensive zone
Eller 86.0%
Neutral zone
Eller 51.3%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
Eller
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Eller
Stamkos
Last 6: Eller 3-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Eller
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
3
0
Eller
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Eller
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (742)
55.9% (499)
-3.1%
Power Play
67.6% (34)
56.3% (126)
+11.3%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (156)
58.3% (12)
-12.1%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Eller is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (333).
Eller shoots left. Stamkos is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (486).
Home / Away
Eller
Stamkos
Home
54.5% (448)
55.3% (349)
Away
50.2% (484)
56.9% (288)
By Period
Eller
Stamkos
P1
52.8%
57.0%
P2
50.9%
59.2%
P3
53.4%
51.5%
OT
50.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
55.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.3%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 14:32 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 18:36 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 3 | 10:31 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 15:55 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 15:28 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 18:23 | Defensive | Lars Eller |