Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Eller wins 61.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 51.9% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 79.7%
Defensive zone
Eller 75.0%
Neutral zone
Eller 55.5%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Eller
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Eller
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Eller
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Eller
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (650)
49.3% (670)
+3.5%
Power Play
69.2% (13)
53.7% (121)
+15.5%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (88)
33.3% (3)
+12.2%
On power play, Eller has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Eller is 61.3% vs right-shot opponents (225).
Eller shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Eller
Stamkos
Home
52.6% (340)
54.0% (400)
Away
51.8% (411)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Eller
Stamkos
P1
52.4%
48.6%
P2
54.1%
54.5%
P3
50.0%
45.4%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 18:11 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 15:58 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 07:52 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |