Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Eller wins 61.3% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 51.9% vs Thompson 43.7% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 75.1%
Defensive zone
Eller 58.3%
Neutral zone
Thompson 54.7%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 58.7%
41.3%
58.7%
Eller
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Eller
Thompson
Last 5: Eller 2-3 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Eller
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Eller
Thompson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (650)
41.9% (597)
+10.9%
Power Play
69.2% (13)
50.5% (95)
+18.7%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (88)
25.0% (12)
+20.5%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Eller is 61.3% vs right-shot opponents (225).
Eller shoots left. Thompson is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Eller
Thompson
Home
52.6% (340)
47.1% (367)
Away
51.8% (411)
38.0% (337)
By Period
Eller
Thompson
P1
52.4%
44.2%
P2
54.1%
41.6%
P3
50.0%
42.9%
OT
50.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.2%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 13:59 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 05:11 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 3 | 19:14 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 3 | 17:22 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 3 | 03:26 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |