Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Eller wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.7% vs Thompson 45.3% (+12.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 52.2%
Defensive zone
Eller 80.8%
Neutral zone
Eller 64.6%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 52.2%
47.8%
52.2%
Eller
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Eller
Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
2
1
Eller
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (434)
44.9% (642)
+11.6%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
47.9% (94)
+29.9%
Penalty Kill
56.5% (46)
33.3% (33)
+23.2%
On power play, Eller has a +29.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Eller is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (187).
Eller shoots left. Thompson is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (549).
Home / Away
Eller
Thompson
Home
53.1% (211)
46.0% (391)
Away
59.7% (278)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Eller
Thompson
P1
55.4%
48.1%
P2
58.1%
44.9%
P3
57.1%
41.2%
Final 5 min
60.5%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
56.9%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 11:03 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 05:07 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 04:54 | Offensive | Lars Eller |