Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Eller wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 53.3% vs Hertl 54.5% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 75.8%
Defensive zone
Eller 81.0%
Neutral zone
Eller 55.7%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 55.8%
55.8%
44.2%
Eller
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Eller
Hertl
Last 10: Eller 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Eller
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
4
1
Eller
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
2
1
Eller
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (865)
54.1% (1,117)
-0.3%
Power Play
57.1% (21)
59.8% (296)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (137)
34.4% (32)
+18.2%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Eller is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (682).
Eller shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Eller
Hertl
Home
56.4% (486)
54.3% (709)
Away
51.2% (537)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Eller
Hertl
P1
55.1%
51.6%
P2
55.3%
53.6%
P3
51.7%
58.6%
OT
27.3%
45.5%
Final 5 min
51.0%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
53.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 16:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 05:56 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:32 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 19:00 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 07:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 17:01 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 14:14 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 3 | 14:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 2 | 18:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 2 | 08:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 1 | 10:23 | Defensive | Lars Eller |