Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 52.0% vs Hertl 56.8% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 64.5%
Defensive zone
Eller 82.5%
Neutral zone
Eller 57.1%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
Eller
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Eller
Hertl
Last 5: Eller 2-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Eller
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
2
0
Eller
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Eller
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (742)
57.0% (718)
-4.2%
Power Play
67.6% (34)
64.9% (188)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (156)
44.2% (77)
+2.0%
On even strength, Hertl has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Eller is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Eller shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Eller
Hertl
Home
54.5% (448)
59.2% (463)
Away
50.2% (484)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Eller
Hertl
P1
52.8%
56.3%
P2
50.9%
55.4%
P3
53.4%
60.5%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 11:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 11:02 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 08:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 17:03 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 15:15 | Defensive | Lars Eller |