Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (74% H2H, 23 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 50.5% vs Hertl 54.2% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 26-25 in 51 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 64.6%
Defensive zone
Eller 74.2%
Neutral zone
Eller 56.5%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
Eller
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
26
(51 meetings)
25
26
Eller
Hertl
Last 10: Eller 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
12
Eller
Hertl
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
17
6
Eller
Hertl
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
8
Eller
Hertl
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (10,296)
53.8% (8,268)
-2.7%
Power Play
52.8% (621)
59.3% (1,975)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (1,751)
46.3% (806)
+0.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,123).
Eller shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Eller
Hertl
Home
51.4% (6,118)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
49.7% (6,578)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Eller
Hertl
P1
51.2%
53.6%
P2
50.1%
54.1%
P3
50.2%
55.3%
OT
56.7%
46.5%
Final 5 min
49.6%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 13:38 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 07:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 02:21 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 01:58 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 3 | 02:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 11:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 11:02 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 08:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 17:03 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 15:15 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 16:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 05:56 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:32 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 19:00 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 07:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 17:01 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 14:14 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 3 | 14:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 2 | 18:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |