Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.9% vs 57.8%). Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Eller wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.7% vs Hertl 57.2% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 91.0%
Defensive zone
Eller 66.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 69.4%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
Eller
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Eller
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
3
0
Eller
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
1
0
Eller
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (434)
58.1% (823)
-1.6%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
56.2% (265)
+21.6%
Penalty Kill
56.5% (46)
62.9% (35)
-6.4%
On power play, Eller has a +21.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Eller is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Eller shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Eller
Hertl
Home
53.1% (211)
59.7% (561)
Away
59.7% (278)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Eller
Hertl
P1
55.4%
51.6%
P2
58.1%
63.8%
P3
57.1%
58.6%
Final 5 min
60.5%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
56.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 13:38 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 07:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 02:21 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 01:58 | Defensive | Lars Eller |