Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Eller wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.7% vs Gourde 46.0% (+11.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 51.6%
Defensive zone
Gourde 53.3%
Neutral zone
Gourde 53.0%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Eller
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Eller
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
0
Eller
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Eller
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (434)
47.2% (654)
+9.3%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
45.0% (20)
+32.8%
Penalty Kill
56.5% (46)
32.2% (87)
+24.3%
On power play, Eller has a +32.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Eller is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Eller shoots left. Gourde is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (501).
Home / Away
Eller
Gourde
Home
53.1% (211)
44.1% (322)
Away
59.7% (278)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Eller
Gourde
P1
55.4%
42.4%
P2
58.1%
49.8%
P3
57.1%
44.3%
Final 5 min
60.5%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
56.9%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 16:51 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 17:52 | Offensive | Lars Eller |