Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 50.5% vs Gourde 48.2% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Eller leads 14-3 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Eller 61.0%
Defensive zone
Eller 80.2%
Neutral zone
Eller 67.8%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 69.7%
69.7%
30.3%
Eller
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
3
(17 meetings)
14
3
Eller
Gourde
Last 10: Eller 7-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
5
1
Eller
Gourde
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
4
2
Eller
Gourde
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
5
0
Eller
Gourde
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (10,296)
48.4% (4,954)
+2.7%
Power Play
52.8% (621)
57.4% (376)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (1,751)
39.9% (554)
+6.8%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,123).
Eller shoots left. Gourde is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,946).
Home / Away
Eller
Gourde
Home
51.4% (6,118)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
49.7% (6,578)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Eller
Gourde
P1
51.2%
49.9%
P2
50.1%
47.4%
P3
50.2%
47.5%
OT
56.7%
37.0%
Final 5 min
49.6%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 16:51 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 17:52 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 18:42 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 13:10 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 09:39 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 09:19 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 15:05 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 15:01 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 05:01 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 17:33 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 19:27 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 03:31 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 03:22 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 07:24 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 24, 2017 | 3 | 17:58 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 24, 2017 | 3 | 01:50 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 3 | 19:16 | Neutral | Lars Eller |