Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.2% vs 56.9%). Look for Draisaitl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Evans wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Draisaitl 56.4% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Draisaitl leads 11-6 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 80.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 90.5%
Neutral zone
Evans 62.2%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Evans
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
11
(17 meetings)
6
11
Evans
Draisaitl
Last 10: Evans 4-6 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
0
7
Evans
Draisaitl
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
5
0
Evans
Draisaitl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
1
4
Evans
Draisaitl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
55.9% (835)
+0.3%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
61.8% (228)
+8.2%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
50.0% (40)
+5.4%
On power play, Evans has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Evans shoots right. Draisaitl is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (395).
Home / Away
Evans
Draisaitl
Home
55.3% (374)
55.1% (508)
Away
57.1% (317)
58.5% (595)
By Period
Evans
Draisaitl
P1
58.5%
55.8%
P2
55.7%
55.7%
P3
53.9%
59.0%
OT
66.7%
60.0%
Final 5 min
54.3%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 12:03 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 11:07 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 16:56 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 07:24 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 06:04 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 11:19 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 10:41 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 03:10 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 16:57 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 13:28 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 07:29 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 07:21 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:51 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 16:41 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 10:36 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |