Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.8% vs 56.9%). Look for Draisaitl on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Draisaitl 56.4% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Draisaitl leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 52.5%
Defensive zone
Tavares 59.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 59.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
Tavares
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
Tavares
Draisaitl
Last 10: Tavares 3-7 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
1
3
Tavares
Draisaitl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
1
5
Tavares
Draisaitl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
Draisaitl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
55.9% (835)
+2.1%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
61.8% (228)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
50.0% (40)
+7.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Draisaitl is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (708).
Home / Away
Tavares
Draisaitl
Home
57.8% (614)
55.1% (508)
Away
57.8% (554)
58.5% (595)
By Period
Tavares
Draisaitl
P1
58.0%
55.8%
P2
56.9%
55.7%
P3
58.4%
59.0%
OT
57.7%
60.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 14:10 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 04:20 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:17 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:03 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 01:29 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 01:21 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 01:13 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 04:54 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 16:03 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 12:52 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 12:40 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:51 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:43 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |