Scouting Report
Leon Draisaitl holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Draisaitl wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Draisaitl 56.5% vs Paul 53.9% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 60.7%
Defensive zone
Paul 70.5%
Neutral zone
Paul 62.5%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 65.3%
34.7%
65.3%
Draisaitl
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Draisaitl
Paul
Last 9: Draisaitl 3-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Draisaitl
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
4
Draisaitl
Paul
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
1
0
Draisaitl
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Draisaitl
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
57.4% (1,010)
53.1% (710)
+4.3%
Power Play
56.2% (331)
57.3% (199)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (110)
58.0% (69)
-3.5%
On even strength, Draisaitl has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Draisaitl is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (894).
Draisaitl shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Draisaitl
Paul
Home
56.4% (734)
56.0% (466)
Away
57.5% (717)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Draisaitl
Paul
P1
55.6%
57.2%
P2
62.1%
54.9%
P3
52.4%
51.5%
OT
61.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.6%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
56.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2023 | 3 | 17:22 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 3 | 15:26 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 3 | 06:27 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 1 | 19:53 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 1 | 15:40 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 1 | 13:23 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 19:00 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 13:16 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 13:13 | Offensive | Nick Paul |