Scouting Report
Leon Draisaitl holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (81% H2H, 32 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Draisaitl 53.3% vs Paul 52.2% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 38-30 in 68 meetings
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 55.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 78.8%
Neutral zone
Paul 61.7%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 63.3%
36.7%
63.3%
Draisaitl
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
30
-
38
(68 meetings)
30
38
Draisaitl
Paul
Last 10: Draisaitl 2-8 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
17
8
Draisaitl
Paul
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
6
26
Draisaitl
Paul
32 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
7
4
Draisaitl
Paul
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Draisaitl
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (10,240)
52.5% (3,796)
+0.4%
Power Play
55.7% (2,827)
56.5% (480)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (977)
46.7% (574)
+4.5%
On penalty kill, Draisaitl has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Draisaitl is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,946).
Draisaitl shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Home / Away
Draisaitl
Paul
Home
54.6% (7,049)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
52.0% (6,995)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Draisaitl
Paul
P1
52.7%
53.9%
P2
53.6%
51.0%
P3
53.4%
52.0%
OT
57.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.0%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
53.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 17:14 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 10:53 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 09:50 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 17:46 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 17:23 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 08:18 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 2 | 19:05 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 06:59 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 3 | 17:22 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 3 | 15:26 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 3 | 06:27 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 1 | 19:53 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 1 | 15:40 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 1 | 13:23 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 19:00 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 13:16 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 13:13 | Offensive | Nick Paul |