Scouting Report
Leon Draisaitl holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Draisaitl wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Draisaitl 56.4% vs Sturm 53.6% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 67.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 90.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 69.7%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 59.5%
40.5%
59.5%
Draisaitl
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Draisaitl
Sturm
Last 10: Draisaitl 3-7 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
3
2
Draisaitl
Sturm
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
4
Draisaitl
Sturm
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Draisaitl
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Draisaitl
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (835)
54.6% (271)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (40)
54.4% (90)
-4.4%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Draisaitl is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (708).
Draisaitl shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Draisaitl
Sturm
Home
55.1% (508)
53.0% (168)
Away
58.5% (595)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Draisaitl
Sturm
P1
55.8%
58.2%
P2
55.7%
53.2%
P3
59.0%
52.3%
OT
60.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
56.9%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 11:42 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 01:06 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 14:27 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 06:21 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 03:42 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:18 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 05:05 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 19:08 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 13:09 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 02:11 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |