Scouting Report
Leon Draisaitl holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Draisaitl wins 57.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Draisaitl 54.6% vs Carrick 49.5% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 77.1%
Defensive zone
Carrick 81.2%
Neutral zone
Carrick 57.4%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 67.5%
32.5%
67.5%
Draisaitl
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Draisaitl
Carrick
Last 6: Draisaitl 3-3 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
1
0
Draisaitl
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
3
Draisaitl
Carrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
1
0
Draisaitl
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Draisaitl
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (974)
49.2% (307)
+3.2%
Power Play
59.5% (373)
66.7% (6)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
61.0% (123)
48.2% (56)
+12.8%
On penalty kill, Draisaitl has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Draisaitl is 57.5% vs right-shot opponents (520).
Draisaitl shoots left. Carrick is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
Draisaitl
Carrick
Home
54.5% (778)
50.3% (175)
Away
55.3% (692)
48.5% (194)
By Period
Draisaitl
Carrick
P1
54.6%
41.0%
P2
56.1%
51.2%
P3
53.3%
55.3%
Final 5 min
52.7%
37.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
54.9%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2023 | 2 | 14:28 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 2 | 09:51 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 19:12 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 19:02 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 11:16 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 18:13 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |