Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.9% vs 54.8%). Look for Draisaitl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Draisaitl wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Draisaitl 54.6% vs Hertl 54.5% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Draisaitl leads 14-8 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 51.9%
Defensive zone
Draisaitl 58.3%
Neutral zone
Draisaitl 61.6%
Result
Leon Draisaitl favored at 55.8%
55.8%
44.2%
Draisaitl
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
8
(22 meetings)
14
8
Draisaitl
Hertl
Last 10: Draisaitl 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
6
2
Draisaitl
Hertl
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
4
Draisaitl
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
6
2
Draisaitl
Hertl
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Draisaitl
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (974)
54.1% (1,117)
-1.7%
Power Play
59.5% (373)
59.8% (296)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
61.0% (123)
34.4% (32)
+26.6%
On penalty kill, Draisaitl has a +26.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Draisaitl is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (950).
Draisaitl shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Draisaitl
Hertl
Home
54.5% (778)
54.3% (709)
Away
55.3% (692)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Draisaitl
Hertl
P1
54.6%
51.6%
P2
56.1%
53.6%
P3
53.3%
58.6%
OT
66.7%
45.5%
Final 5 min
52.7%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
54.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 17:19 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 11:51 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 11:44 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 00:06 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 14:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 12:04 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 11:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 08:19 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 06:47 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 3 | 15:41 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 3 | 00:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 2 | 18:58 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 2 | 10:56 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 2 | 00:30 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 1 | 16:33 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 2 | 08:22 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |