Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.9% vs 57.8%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Draisaitl wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Draisaitl 56.4% vs Hertl 57.2% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 51.3%
Defensive zone
Draisaitl 52.2%
Neutral zone
Draisaitl 50.5%
Result
Leon Draisaitl favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Draisaitl
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Draisaitl
Hertl
Last 9: Draisaitl 3-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Draisaitl
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
3
0
Draisaitl
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Draisaitl
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Draisaitl
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (835)
58.1% (823)
-2.2%
Power Play
61.8% (228)
56.2% (265)
+5.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (40)
62.9% (35)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Draisaitl is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (708).
Draisaitl shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Draisaitl
Hertl
Home
55.1% (508)
59.7% (561)
Away
58.5% (595)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Draisaitl
Hertl
P1
55.8%
51.6%
P2
55.7%
63.8%
P3
59.0%
58.6%
OT
60.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
54.8%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
56.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 12:17 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 02:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 13:09 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 05:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 19:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 19:12 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 18:10 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 17:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 08:23 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |