Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.3% vs 54.2%). Look for Draisaitl on offensive-zone draws (53% H2H, 47 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Draisaitl 53.3% vs Hertl 54.2% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Draisaitl leads 70-63 in 133 meetings
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 53.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 57.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 52.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Draisaitl
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
70
-
63
(133 meetings)
70
63
Draisaitl
Hertl
Last 10: Draisaitl 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
25
22
Draisaitl
Hertl
47 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
26
24
Draisaitl
Hertl
50 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
19
17
Draisaitl
Hertl
36 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Draisaitl
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (10,240)
53.8% (8,268)
-0.9%
Power Play
55.7% (2,827)
59.3% (1,975)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (977)
46.3% (806)
+4.9%
On penalty kill, Draisaitl has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Draisaitl is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,946).
Draisaitl shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Draisaitl
Hertl
Home
54.6% (7,049)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
52.0% (6,995)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Draisaitl
Hertl
P1
52.7%
53.6%
P2
53.6%
54.1%
P3
53.4%
55.3%
OT
57.0%
46.5%
Final 5 min
52.0%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
53.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 12:17 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 02:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 13:09 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 05:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 19:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 19:12 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 18:10 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 17:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 08:23 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 04:52 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 01:38 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 15:05 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 04:08 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 07:31 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 05:22 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 3 | 05:46 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 1 | 16:13 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 2 | 01:02 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 1 | 13:22 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 1 | 01:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |