Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Draisaitl 54.0% vs Hertl 55.4% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 55.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 51.3%
Neutral zone
Draisaitl 50.5%
Result
Leon Draisaitl favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Draisaitl
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Draisaitl
Hertl
Last 6: Draisaitl 3-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
1
0
Draisaitl
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Draisaitl
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Draisaitl
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Draisaitl
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (923)
54.1% (717)
-0.4%
Power Play
56.1% (244)
61.9% (210)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
58.6% (29)
58.1% (31)
+0.5%
On power play, Hertl has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Draisaitl is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (797).
Draisaitl shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Draisaitl
Hertl
Home
55.2% (636)
58.1% (492)
Away
53.4% (560)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Draisaitl
Hertl
P1
50.8%
57.1%
P2
56.6%
54.0%
P3
54.0%
56.6%
OT
67.9%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.8%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
54.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 04:52 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 01:38 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 15:05 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 04:08 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 07:31 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 05:22 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |