Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Jankowski wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jankowski 53.6% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 51.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 51.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 53.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Jankowski
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Jankowski
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Jankowski
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
1
0
Jankowski
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jankowski
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (527)
55.4% (826)
-1.3%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
57.9% (221)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
57.5% (40)
50.4% (129)
+7.1%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Jankowski is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (365).
Jankowski shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Jankowski
O'Reilly
Home
53.9% (310)
55.8% (579)
Away
54.6% (271)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Jankowski
O'Reilly
P1
54.6%
57.7%
P2
56.3%
54.8%
P3
51.9%
54.3%
Final 5 min
54.9%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 12:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 12:10 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |