Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.2% vs 54.5%). Look for Jankowski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Jankowski wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jankowski 53.6% vs Carrick 53.8% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Jankowski 73.8%
Defensive zone
Carrick 69.2%
Neutral zone
Carrick 51.1%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 51.8%
48.2%
51.8%
Jankowski
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Jankowski
Carrick
Last 10: Jankowski 5-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
4
0
Jankowski
Carrick
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
2
4
Jankowski
Carrick
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
3
Jankowski
Carrick
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jankowski
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (527)
55.1% (439)
-1.0%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
66.7% (3)
-16.7%
Penalty Kill
57.5% (40)
49.1% (53)
+8.4%
On power play, Carrick has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Jankowski is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (216).
Jankowski shoots left. Carrick is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
Jankowski
Carrick
Home
53.9% (310)
58.2% (225)
Away
54.6% (271)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Jankowski
Carrick
P1
54.6%
56.7%
P2
56.3%
52.8%
P3
51.9%
54.4%
Final 5 min
54.9%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 14:28 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 01:51 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 02:45 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 07:32 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 01:24 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 11:27 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 11:06 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 01:39 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 12:59 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 12:54 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 05:04 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 16:53 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:40 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:21 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |