Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Jankowski wins 42.9% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jankowski 50.5% vs Carrick 53.7% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jankowski 67.4%
Defensive zone
Carrick 55.8%
Neutral zone
Jankowski 54.1%
Result
Mark Jankowski favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
Jankowski
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Jankowski
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
2
0
Jankowski
Carrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Jankowski
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
3
Jankowski
Carrick
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jankowski
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (347)
53.8% (654)
-2.5%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
0.0% (2)
+72.7%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (75)
63.9% (36)
-19.9%
On power play, Jankowski has a +72.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Jankowski is 42.9% vs right-shot opponents (163).
Jankowski shoots left. Carrick is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (503).
Home / Away
Jankowski
Carrick
Home
46.8% (188)
50.0% (328)
Away
53.5% (245)
58.0% (364)
By Period
Jankowski
Carrick
P1
51.6%
56.7%
P2
49.3%
51.1%
P3
50.9%
54.8%
Final 5 min
50.0%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
50.6%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 14:11 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |