Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Jankowski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jankowski 50.4% vs Carrick 52.1% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 13-12 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Jankowski 69.7%
Defensive zone
Carrick 64.9%
Neutral zone
Carrick 50.2%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Jankowski
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
13
(25 meetings)
12
13
Jankowski
Carrick
Last 10: Jankowski 5-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
6
0
Jankowski
Carrick
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
4
6
Jankowski
Carrick
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
2
7
Jankowski
Carrick
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jankowski
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (3,462)
52.1% (2,513)
-0.6%
Power Play
53.7% (95)
61.3% (75)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (528)
50.7% (430)
-7.9%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Jankowski is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (1,550).
Jankowski shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Home / Away
Jankowski
Carrick
Home
51.9% (1,940)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
49.1% (2,145)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Jankowski
Carrick
P1
50.0%
51.8%
P2
51.2%
52.2%
P3
50.2%
52.4%
Final 5 min
52.8%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
50.4%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 14:28 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 01:51 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 02:45 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 07:32 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 01:24 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 11:27 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 11:06 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 01:39 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 12:59 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 12:54 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 05:04 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 16:53 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:40 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:21 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 14:11 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 3 | 06:50 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 3 | 02:54 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Nov 7, 2018 | 2 | 02:13 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 7, 2018 | 1 | 15:05 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |