Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Jankowski wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jankowski 53.6% vs Hertl 57.2% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 75.5%
Defensive zone
Jankowski 54.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 61.7%
Result
Mark Jankowski favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Jankowski
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Jankowski
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
1
0
Jankowski
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jankowski
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (527)
58.1% (823)
-4.0%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
56.2% (265)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
57.5% (40)
62.9% (35)
-5.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Jankowski is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (365).
Jankowski shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Jankowski
Hertl
Home
53.9% (310)
59.7% (561)
Away
54.6% (271)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Jankowski
Hertl
P1
54.6%
51.6%
P2
56.3%
63.8%
P3
51.9%
58.6%
Final 5 min
54.9%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 04:45 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |